The Guardians did it. Somehow, they actually did it.
With a 5–2 win over the Tigers on Tuesday night, Cleveland completed an improbable comeback and tied Detroit atop the American League Central. A team that was eight games under .500 and 15.5 games out of the division race in early July now has a 56.3% chance of winning it.
Conversely, the Tigers, who held baseball's best record on July 8, have fumbled it. An epic collapse has seen them fall into a deep slump that’s snowballed into a complete September collapse.
How did this happen? Let's go inside the numbers to get a better look.
40 — Wins for Cleveland on July 6, 88 games into the season. They fell eight games below .500 on that date after being swept at home by the Tigers.
45 — Wins for Cleveland since July 7, a 45–24 record (.652), second best in baseball behind the Milwaukee Brewers.
15.5 — Games the Guardians trailed the Tigers by on July 8.
10.5 — Games the Guardians trailed the Tigers by on Sept. 1.
9.5 — Games behind the Tigers on Sept. 10.
3.96 — Team ERA for the Guardians on July 6, 18th in baseball.
3.30 — Team ERA for the Guardians since July 6, best in baseball.
2.9 — fWAR for Jose Ramirez since July 6, tied with Cal Raleigh for fifth in the American League. Ramirez is slashing .264/.358/.528 over that span with 16 home runs, 43 RBIs, 57 runs scored and 18 stolen bases, with a wRC+ of 136.
1.3 — fWAR for rookie starting pitcher Parker Messick since his debut on Aug. 20. That ranks fifth in baseball during that time. He's 3–0 with a 2.08 ERA and 31 strikeouts against five walks in 34 2/3 innings.
2.39 — ERA for starter Gavin Williams since July 6. He's 7–1 since then.
1.25 — ERA for starter Tanner Bibee in three September starts. He's 2–0, with a 0.65 WHIP and 21 strikeouts against three walks in 21 2/3 innings. That includes a complete game shutout two-hitter against the White Sox on Sept. 12.
59 — Tigers wins on July 8, most in MLB. They were 59–34, good for the best record in baseball and a 14-game lead over the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals in the AL Central. The Guardians were 15.5 games back.
26 — Tigers wins since July 8. They're 26–38 (.406) in that time, the sixth-worst record in baseball.
5 — Tigers wins in September. They are 5–14, the second-worst record in baseball behind only the 4–16 Colorado Rockies.
3.46 — Tigers team ERA on July 8, third-best in baseball.
4.80 — Tigers team ERA since July 8, sixth-worst in baseball.
106 — Detroit's team wRC+ on July 8, seventh in baseball.
95 — Detroit's wRC+ since July 8, 20th in baseball.